The impact of real exchange rate shocks on manufacturing workers: An autopsy from the MORG

We study the impact of large real exchange rate shocks on workers in sectors initially more exposed to international trade using the Current Population Survey’s (CPS) Merged Outgoing Rotation Group (MORG) from 1979 to 2010 combined with new annual measures of imported inputs, a proxy for offshoring. We find that in periods when US relative prices are high, and imports surge relative to exports, workers in sectors with greater initial exposure to international trade were more likely to be unemployed or exit the labor force a year later, but did not experience significant declines in wages conditional on being employed. Contrary to the usual narrative, we find negative wage effects for higher-wage, but not lower-wage workers, particularly for those who are less-educated.     

美国需求端产业结构的变化及对中国的启示

对产业结构演化的研究都是从供给端计算的产业结构，本文构造了从需求端计算的产业结构并依此对美国需求端产业结构的演化进行了实证分析。研究表明，当年价所计算的美国需求端三次产业结构的变化小于供给端产业结构的变化；1970年以来美国第二产业的变化差异中近40%可以用外贸因素来解释。进而本文采取不变价计算了美国产业结构的变化，研究表明，自1970年以来按不变价计算的美国需求端的产业结构变化很小，且美国第三产业比例提升中有31%可以用不同产业价格因素变化来解释，44%可以用国际贸易来解释，仅有25%可以用第三产业收入弹性的变化来解释，因而收入弹性不是美国第三产业比例提升的重要原因。美国能够维持经常账户的逆差，将第三产业作为动力产业的根本原因在于美元的霸权地位。相比较而言，中国一直以来处于国际收支“双顺差”的状态，中国的具体国情和国家实力均无法满足大规模输出人民币使之成为其他国家储备货币的条件。     

The development trinity: How regional integration impacts growth,inequality and poverty

Developing countries today have become more active participants in regional trade agreements. This raises questions about how the benefits of integration are distributed, and the extent to which lower‐income countries are able to capture development gains. Historically, such impacts have been difficult to identify with precision. This paper seeks to address this gap by empirically analysing the impact of regional integration on development, particularly the effects on growth and welfare. Using both bilateral and regional integration measures, we show that the ability to capture gains from integration varies across developing country regional groups, with developing Asia benefiting on par with developed countries. The findings in the paper indicate that trade and trade policy play an important role in reducing inequality and poverty in developing countries. It also shows that regionalism can function as a channel to make multilateralism a more adept way of addressing national challenges.     

我国出口汇率传递的非对称性:来自中日贸易的证据

文章扩展了Yang（2007）的厂商定价模型，对汇率传递非对称性、特点和成立条件进行理论分析，发现对称传递需要满足严格的条件，而现实中更常见的是非对称汇率传递。在一定条件下，商品需求弹性越大，越可能呈现出口国货币贬值传递率高而升值传递率低的特点。利用2000年1月至2011年12月我国出口日本的966种商品价格数据，发现汇率波动向价格传递具有非对称性：（1）人民币升值时，日元价格上涨较少；而贬值时，价格下降较多。我国出口商品的需求弹性较大，在日本市场上面对的是一个强竞争结构。（2）若月度升值超过一定幅度（测算约为2.43%），传递率又会有所上升，说明尽管日元价格易跌难涨，但在升值导致成本上涨较多、明显挤压利润时，厂商不得不适当提高日元售价。采用2000年至2018年9月日本从中国进口单位价值指数进行稳健性检验，得出类似结论。现阶段稳定的人民币名义汇率对我国出口企业是更为有利的。     

电子商务技能型人才需求与高职教育培养匹配研究

产业转型升级发展对专业技能型人才的需求发生变化,作为技能型人才重要培养主体的高职院校,面临着如何培养新时代高素质技能人才的挑战。通过招聘大数据挖掘电子商务技能型人才的需求特征,同时调研相关高职院校电子商务专业人才培养现状,分析供需匹配度。结果表明:电商企业需要德技并修的高素质技能型人才,而高职院校的课程体系以专业技能、商务技能等硬技能教学为主,忽视综合素养软技能教育,同时,高职院校电子商务专业课程开设未能根据行业技术更新和产业转型发展及时调整。基于研究结果,从课程体系建设、校企合作深化、工匠精神培育等方面提出相关建议。     

我国中小企业三维差异化特征比较研究

作为推动国民经济增长和促进社会稳定的基础力量,中小企业在市场中扮演着最活跃的经济主体。与大企业相比,中小企业有其鲜明的成长特征,从动态演进视角选取体量规模、生命周期、要素需求三个维度,系统探讨了中小企业的差异化特征。结论显示:体量规模特征反映在个体与群体以及经济板块之间;生命周期特征体现在死亡陷阱和空间格局演变上;要素需求特征会根据阶段创新内容的不同做出适时调整。     

徐州市科技创新能力综合评价及应用研究

从科技创新投入、科技创新产出、科技创新环境支撑和科技促进可持续发展等4个方面,在26个备选具体指标的基础上,通过反复测试检验,最终选取14个具体指标,建立科技创新评价模型,对淮海经济区核心区城市和江苏省十三市的科技创新能力予以定量评价,并进行横向比较分析。最后从科技创新投入、成果转化等七个方面对徐州市提高科技创新能力给出了建设性建议。     

Small system dynamics model for alleviating the general practitioners rural care gap in Ontario,Canada

The disproportionate concentration of healthcare professionals in urban areas is a concern in many countries, including Canada. A need to address this rural care gap has driven a large number of government led initiatives worldwide over the years. This paper presents a model that can be used as a tool to examine the efficacy of such policies on the workforce distribution in the long term. A small system dynamics model is employed to simulate the current and future distribution of general physicians at a jurisdictional level. The model represents the transition of general practitioners to provide insight into the dynamics of care provision over time. The movement, and competition, between rural and urban areas is modeled to enable detailed exploration of the ability for proposed measures to alleviate the care gap in the future. Among the tested policies are such commonly used initiatives as financial incentives to rural professionals, promotion of medical education in rural areas, expansion of rural education programs and the engagement of international medical graduates etc. We demonstrate how the model can be used as a tool to determine an efficient and well-chosen combination of policies which can help alleviate the rural care gap in the future, given that some policies are more effective than others alone but also combined with other initiatives. The presented small system dynamics model is tested on Canada's reality, but its simple nature lends itself to easy application to other countries that experience a similar problem.     

Sensory Aspects of Retailing: Theoretical and Practical Implications

Sensory elements are an important aspect of both offline and online retail stores and can non-consciously influence consumer judgments and purchase behavior. In offline settings, ambient factors like scent, lighting, and music have been shown to influence customers’ shopping experiences and their buying behaviors. For online retail outlets, sensory factors related to color, display patterns, and layouts can have significant effects on consumer behavior. Sensory elements have strong managerial relevance since they can non-consciously influence behaviors and because they are relatively easy to change; for example, it requires minimal effort to change the lighting or the music at a physical retail store or the display pattern for an online store. The eight papers in this special issue address theoretical and practical issues related to how different sensory elements can strongly influence retail practices. These papers focus on underexplored topic areas and also on emerging technologies, which stimulate thoughts for further research in these areas.     

险资股权投资的结构性改革研究*——基于险资投资的倒U型效应分析

保险资金作为重要的机构投资者能否发挥促进公司绩效提升的作用在已有研究和监管政策制定上都存在较大争议。本文以2005-2017年A股上市公司为研究样本，发现险资持股比例对上市公司绩效以及估值影响存在显著的倒U型曲线效应，相应机制研究表明险资持股通过显著影响两类代理成本的渠道发挥治理作用。在适度持股比例以下，险资增持能够降低被投资公司管理费用率和其他应收款占比，并提高资产周转率，从而降低两类代理成本；持股超过一定比例反而造成两类代理成本上升。险资持股比例变化对保险机构调研次数的影响则从公司治理参与角度印证了以上结论。对倒U型曲线效应的深入分析既有助于深化对机构投资者影响公司绩效的多重效应和机制的认识，同时为在金融机构层面落实金融供给侧结构性改革、增强险资服务实体经济能力提供参考。